Global oil markets experienced sharp swings after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, forcing traders to reassess geopolitical risk, future oil supply, and the stability of Latin America’s largest energy producer.
U.S. crude prices moved unpredictably when trading opened Sunday evening, reflecting uncertainty over whether the unfolding situation would ultimately restrict supply or unlock Venezuela’s vast but underdeveloped oil reserves. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, dipped initially before reversing course multiple times overnight. By early Monday, WTI was modestly higher, gaining about 0.3%.
International benchmark Brent crude followed a similar trajectory, rising roughly 0.2% in early trading after fluctuating through the night.
Competing forces drive volatility
Market analysts say investors are balancing two powerful and opposing forces. On one hand, heightened political instability and the risk of further military conflict in the region could push oil prices higher by threatening production and transport routes. On the other, President Donald Trump’s comments suggesting a major expansion of Venezuelan oil output could eventually increase global supply and put downward pressure on prices.
Shortly after the operation that led to Maduro’s capture, Trump said U.S. energy companies would move into Venezuela, invest heavily in infrastructure, and revive oil production from the country’s enormous reserves.
Energy stocks rally on production hopes
Energy-related stocks surged on expectations that American firms could benefit from renewed access to Venezuelan oil. Chevron — currently the only U.S. company authorized to operate in the country — jumped sharply in premarket trading. Other major producers, including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, also posted solid gains.
Refining companies such as Valero and Phillips 66 advanced, while oilfield services firms including SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton saw strong rallies as investors bet on increased drilling and infrastructure work.
Safe-haven assets gain appeal
Beyond energy markets, investors moved quickly into traditional safe-haven assets. Gold prices climbed more than 2%, while silver surged nearly 4%, reflecting broader concern over geopolitical uncertainty and potential spillover effects in global markets.
U.S. stock futures were also higher, signaling cautious optimism that energy sector gains could offset broader risks. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pointed to a stronger open.
Venezuela’s oil potential faces major hurdles
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, exceeding those of Saudi Arabia and other major producers. However, years of underinvestment, sanctions, and economic mismanagement have left its energy infrastructure severely degraded.
Restoring production to even late-20th-century levels would require billions of dollars in investment and years of work, according to estimates from the country’s state oil company. Analysts note that securing such funding could prove difficult at a time when global energy firms have been cutting back on capital spending amid lower oil prices.
Broader market context
The latest price movements come against the backdrop of a global oil market already facing oversupply concerns. In 2025, both WTI and Brent recorded their steepest annual declines since 2020, and some analysts have warned of a looming supply glut even before developments in Venezuela.
Meanwhile, OPEC — of which Venezuela is a founding member — announced over the weekend that it would keep production levels unchanged, offering no immediate response to the political upheaval.
As markets digest the implications of Washington’s actions and Caracas’ uncertain future, oil prices are likely to remain volatile, with traders closely watching for signals on investment, production timelines, and the risk of further regional escalation.
